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EXELIXIS, INC. (EXEL)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2026 earnings materials (8‑K 2.02 press release and call transcript) are not yet available; Exelixis has not reported Q2 2026 as of today. We searched SEC/IR sources and found no Q2 2026 documents (our latest primary sources are Q1–Q3 2025) .
  • Street consensus for Q2 2026 stands at Revenue $641.1M* and EPS $0.757* (6 EPS ests; 4 revenue ests). Absent company-reported results, these are the anchor for expectations*.
  • Trailing results through Q3 2025 show strengthening top-line and profitability: revenue rose from $555.4M in Q1 2025 to $597.8M in Q3 2025, with GAAP diluted EPS improving from $0.55 to $0.69 .
  • Key drivers into mid‑2026: CABOMETYX momentum incl. NET launch, royalty trends, and zanzalintinib pivotal catalysts (STELLAR‑303/304) alongside looming U.S. cabozantinib patent expiry in August 2026, which investors will monitor closely .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

Note: With no Q2 2026 report yet, bullets reflect the most recent reported quarters (Q1–Q3 2025) and the setup into Q2 2026.

  • What Went Well

    • CABOMETYX franchise growth continued: Q3 2025 total revenues $597.8M and U.S. net product revenues $542.9M; management cited sustained RCC growth and NET launch momentum .
    • Q2 2025 delivered $568.3M revenue with U.S. cabozantinib net product revenues of $520.0M; GAAP diluted EPS $0.65; management emphasized execution and early NET uptake .
    • Pipeline catalysts: positive top‑line STELLAR‑303 CRC results (later detailed/published in Q4 2025) and STELLAR‑304 fully enrolled with top‑line targeted for H1 2026, positioning zanzalintinib as the next franchise opportunity .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Portfolio pruning: decision not to proceed to STELLAR‑305 phase 3 in head & neck cancer (competition and commercial assessment) underscores prioritization trade‑offs .
    • Collaboration revenue volatility: Q3 2025 collaboration revenue declined versus prior year due to lower milestones and development reimbursements (partially offset by higher ex‑U.S. royalties) .
    • Medium‑term LOE risk: court rulings suggest generic entry for cabozantinib could be possible as early as August 14, 2026 (expiry of the ’473 patent), a key overhang approaching mid‑2026 .

Financial Results

Revenue and EPS vs. recent reported quarters and Q2 2026 consensus

MetricQ1 2025 (reported)Q2 2025 (reported)Q3 2025 (reported)Q2 2026 (consensus est.)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$555.4 $568.3 $597.8 $641.1*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.55 $0.65 $0.69 $0.757*

Revenue mix detail (reported)

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
U.S. Cabozantinib Net Product Revenues ($M)$520.0 $542.9
Royalty Revenues ($M)$43.4 $46.3

Margins and operating metrics (reported quarters; for comparability across periods we show S&P Global-calculated margins)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gross Profit Margin %96.55%*96.57%*96.89%*
EBITDA Margin %34.96%*38.88%*44.13%*
EBIT Margin %33.64%*37.58%*42.89%*
Total Operating Expenses ($M)$368.6*$354.7*$341.4*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Note: No Q2 2026 guidance updates are available (results not yet reported). The most recent guidance commentary from 2025 is included for context.

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Product RevenuesFY 2025$1.85B–$1.95B (implied prior)$1.95B–$2.05B (raised on May 13, 2025)Raised
Total RevenuesFY 2025$2.05B–$2.15B (implied prior)$2.15B–$2.25B (raised on May 13, 2025)Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
CABOMETYX growth and NET launchQ1 2025: “accelerating growth in CABOMETYX demand… increasing 2025 full year guidance” . Q2 2025: U.S. net product revenues $520.0M; early NET reception “very pleased” .Continued outperformance; U.S. net product revenues $542.9M in Q3; management cites leadership in NET new patient share in 2L+ .Improving momentum
Zanzalintinib (STELLAR-303/304/305)Q2 2025: STELLAR‑304 fully enrolled; decision not to advance STELLAR‑305 to phase 3; pipeline wave upcoming .Detailed positive STELLAR‑303 results presented at ESMO with Lancet publication; NDA planned by YE 2025; 304 top-line H1 2026 .De‑risking; regulatory execution next
Capital allocationQ1 2025: execution and guidance raise; ongoing share repurchase program referenced in FY 2024/2025 communications .Additional $750M repurchase program announced for completion by end of 2026 .Share count reduction continues
Ex‑U.S. royaltiesQ2 2025 royalties $43.4M; EC approval for NET supports broader ex‑U.S. uptake .Q3 2025 royalties $46.3M; collaboration revenues down YoY on milestones/reimbursements .Stable to up; mix volatility
LOE/Patent landscape2023 court rulings: generic earliest approval date no earlier than Aug 14, 2026 under ’473 patent .Unchanged; investors focused on mid‑2026 LOE scenarios.Overhang into 2026

Management Commentary

  • “Exelixis continued to execute on our corporate objectives…delivering on key commercial, development and pipeline milestones.” – Michael M. Morrissey, Q2 2025 press release .
  • “In the third quarter of 2025, Exelixis gained momentum in the cabozantinib franchise and delivered on critical strategic priorities across the R&D portfolio.” – Michael M. Morrissey, Q3 2025 press release .
  • On STELLAR‑305 discontinuation: decision driven by emerging data, competitive dynamics and prioritization of higher‑value opportunities (Q2 2025) .

Q&A Highlights

  • STELLAR‑303 interpretation and tone: Management maintained “purposely conservative” language around intent‑to‑treat results pending full data disclosure, while pointing to OS as the gold‑standard endpoint (Q2 2025 call) .
  • Portfolio strategy: Prioritization of zanzalintinib indications with higher probability of success and greater commercial value vs. STELLAR‑305 (Q2 2025 call) .
  • Guidance cadence: Management indicated potential for further 2025 updates as NET launch momentum builds (Q2 2025 call) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2026 Street consensus (S&P Global): Revenue $641.1M*, Primary EPS $0.757* (6 EPS estimates; 4 revenue estimates)*.
  • Context vs. last reported Q2: Q2 2025 revenue $568.3M; consensus implies ~12.8% y/y growth for Q2 2026 if achieved ((641.1−568.3)/568.3 ≈ 12.8%) .
  • Result vs. estimates and stock reaction cannot be assessed until Q2 2026 is reported.

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • With no Q2 2026 prints yet, use consensus (Revenue $641.1M*, EPS $0.757*) and the strengthening 2025 trajectory as the baseline; watch for the durability of CABOMETYX growth in RCC and NET as the primary driver*.
  • Zanzalintinib is the next catalyst stack (NDA filing on STELLAR‑303 and H1 2026 304 top‑line) that can offset mid‑2026 LOE risk; regulatory timing and label scope will be critical .
  • Royalty trends from Ipsen/Takeda matter for total revenue; monitor EU NET launch contribution and ex‑U.S. performance in royalties .
  • Margin expansion through 2025 has been notable (EBITDA margin rising from ~35%* in Q1 to ~44%* in Q3); sustainability into 2026 depends on mix, launch investments and OpEx discipline*.
  • Capital returns remain a support (additional $750M buyback through 2026) but are unlikely to fully mitigate LOE concerns without pipeline conversion .
  • Near‑term trading setup around Q2 2026: focus on demand signals (new patient share in NET), royalty upside, and any guidance color versus Street; medium‑term thesis hinges on zanzalintinib approvals and multi‑franchise execution.

Research status and sources:

  • We could not locate Q2 2026 8‑K 2.02 or call transcript in SEC/IR databases as the quarter has not yet been reported (checked Exelixis IR for 2026 Q2 window; no documents found) .
  • Most recent company materials used: Q1 2025 press release (May 13, 2025) , Q2 2025 press release (July 28, 2025) , Q3 2025 press release (Nov 4, 2025) , and Q2 2025 call transcripts for qualitative context .

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.